I remember very little from my senior year of high school. I remember even less from AP Environmental Science, first period (when I showed up).
Just one story sticks in my mind. I’ll set the scene for you.
The year is 1798. America is barely a generation old, and madness reigns in a French Republic soaked in blood. Forget Facebook’s IPO; the big news in technology is the invention of Eli Whitney’s cotton gin.
An English Reverend broods over the future of mankind from the storied halls of Oxford. He sees two lines, both arcing ever upward without pause. One tracks human population, and the other the earth’s ability to provide the resources necessary to sustain this unchecked growth. He comes to a determination: the latter simply cannot keep pace with the former.
From Thomas Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle of Population:
Must it not then be acknowledged by an attentive examiner of the histories of mankind, that in every age and in every State in which man has existed, or does now exist
That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence,
That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase, and,
That the superior power of population is repressed, and the actual population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice.
A “population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice”; does this sound like a world in which you want to live? So there you have it: a never-ending struggle between population and resources. Note that the first is variable; the second is inevitably fixed.
Economists predicted that this conflict would come to a head in the 1960s, with the US Baby Boom and the explosion of population across Europe’s former colonies; it was avoided only by the Green Revolution’s rapid advancement of genetically modified crops and nitrogen-based fertilizer. Just barely, technology staved off starvation.
Fast forward to 2012, and we face a similar precipice. Global warming is a reality, the Gulf Coast is soaked in oil, and our “build build build” economic model is clearly broken.
It’s not all gloom and doom, however; once again, technology could offer a temporary reprieve. Easy connectivity via the Internet (specifically mobile, it would seem) enables Collaborative Consumption platforms, and the spread of the Sharing Economy. The potential for the efficient utilization of resources is simply enormous, and currently not quantified.
If ridesharing is the norm, instead of the exception, perhaps electric vehicles become an economic reality? If access over ownership is the norm, instead of the exception, perhaps we can find satisfaction with what we need, rather than what we want?
I’m hopeful. It’s a new frontier. Will we embrace it in time?